The market, project, currency, and other information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this article are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice
BTC Price Trend
BTC opened at $119,130.81 this week, closed at $117,312.70, down 1.53%, with a high of $123,231.07, a low of $115,697, and a volatility of 6.32%, with significantly increased trading volume.
US macroeconomic data maintained the September interest rate cut expectation. With long enthusiasm driving, both off-market and on-market funds actively went long, forming an upward force and pushing BTC to a new high. The short-term pre-interest rate cut forward trading is expected to continue.
With BTC breaking through its historical high, funds are rotating, and Altseason has been restarted. BTC's market dominance dropped by 4.83% in a single week, falling to 61.5%.
Meanwhile, after BTC reached a new high of $120,000, long-term investors continued their cyclical selling, providing selling pressure to the market and suppressing price increases.
Another factor to be wary of is the "reciprocal tariff". The market currently prices tariffs will end with a lower rate increase and will not have a significant impact on US inflation. However, the volatility of Trump's decisions makes conclusions difficult to confirm now. Nevertheless, this uncertainty will likely be largely settled by the August 1st deadline.
Policy, Macrofinance, and Economic Data
The CPI data we highlighted last week did not exceed expectations this week.
On July 15, the US-published seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year rate for June was 2.7%, meeting expectations, and the seasonally adjusted core CPI year-on-year rate was 2.9%, lower than the expected 3.0%.
As the data met expectations, the market did not react additionally. However, CPI has indeed started rebounding, partly due to oil price short-term increases from the "Israel-Palestine conflict" and tariffs. The second wave of mild inflation has occurred but is not yet sufficient to force the Federal Reserve to turn hawkish. Whether subsequent tariff impacts will continue to be significantly amplified needs careful observation.
On July 16, the US-published PPI data showed the June PPI year-on-year rate at 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5% and previous 2.7%, indicating some economic cooling.
The subtle data changes have pushed the FedWatch September rate cut probability to slightly over 50%.
Political and trade uncertainty remains high. On July 11, the Trump administration raised Canada's unified tariff to 35% and subsequently issued "notices" to the EU, Mexico, and twenty-three other countries with tax rates of 20-50%, all set to take effect on August 1st. Meanwhile, the $3.4 trillion "Big and Beautiful Act" is entering Senate review. If ultimately implemented, the ten-year deficit rate might be pushed to 9%, potentially exacerbating stagflation risks from fiscal-monetary dual expansion alongside tariff inflation.
Due to data meeting expectations, US stocks continued rising, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 up 1.51% and 0.59% respectively, while Dow Jones slightly dropped 0.07%.
After continuous decline, the US dollar index rebounded 0.64% to 98.46, achieving two consecutive weeks of rebound. Long and short-term US bond yields remained relatively stable. Gold slightly declined.
Under the background of data basically meeting expectations and slightly reduced rate cut expectations, BTC made a small adjustment after reaching a historical high, dropping 1.53%.
Crypto Market
The Crypto market achieved a historic breakthrough this week.
On July 17, the US House of Representatives approved three major Crypto bills—the GENIS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Act. The CLARITY Act and Anti-CBDC Act have been transferred to the Senate for review, while the GENIS Act was quickly signed by Trump the next day, marking the official entry of US stablecoins into the compliance era and signaling stablecoins becoming the second major use case in the crypto world beyond value storage.
Impacted by this positive news, ETH surged over 20% in a single week, driving Altseason to restart.
From a technical perspective, BTC is currently above the "Trump bottom", between the first and second bull market trend lines.
Due to last week's advance on the three major bills' passage, BTC rose 9.08%. This week, BTC chose high-level adjustment with increased long-hand selling volume. However, with enterprise purchases and retail investors flowing in through Spot ETF channels, BTC will likely continue upward after adjustment.
Fund Inflow and Selling
With BTC and stablecoins gaining US legislative support, public companies have become important buyers in the crypto market.
According to Coindesk, public companies have become the largest BTC buyers in Q2, surpassing BTC Spot ETF channels. Their purchase speed has significantly improved since December last year, coinciding with pro-Crypto Trump's election as US President.
Public Company BTC Holdings Statistics
Currently, public companies' crypto reserves have expanded from BTC to Altcoins and even MEMECoins, clearing logical obstacles for Altseason and providing fund and sentiment support.
This week, funds flowing into the market through BTC Spot ETF were $2.359 billion, while ETH Spot ETF channel reached $2.258 billion. On July 17-18, ETH Spot ETF channel inflows exceeded BTC Spot ETF, which is historically significant.
With BTC's fourth wave of rise and the enthusiasm of public companies and US retail investors, BTC long-hands initiated massive selling.
eMerge Engine's on-chain data shows over 150,000 BTC moved from long-hand holdings last week. On exchanges, long and short hands collectively sold 190,000, with significantly expanded selling scale.
Long and Short Hand Selling Statistics (Weekly)
In bull market progression, long-hand continuous selling follows historical patterns. Its impact on price and trend depends on how buying power absorbs selling pressure, which needs close future monitoring.
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, EMC BTC Cycle Metrics is 0.5, in an upward period.
EMC Labs
EMC Labs, created in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists, focuses on blockchain industry research and crypto secondary market investment. With industry foresight, insights, and data mining as core competencies, it is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting blockchain and crypto assets' benefits for humanity.
For more information, visit: https://www.emc.fund
