BTC Longer Dated Skew Flipping Into Put Premium

BTC Faces Renewed Pressure Ahead of Jackson Hole

Bitcoin fell after roughly $600M of long liquidations overnight, sliding from $118k to $113k and extending last week’s ~5% pullback from record highs. Perp funding turned negative over the weekend—often a precursor to corrections—and traders are de-risking into Jackson Hole remarks from Fed Chair Powell.

On the bid side, Tokyo-listed Metaplanet disclosed a 775-BTC purchase over the weekend. Spot remains mid-range: buyers show up near $112k while supply caps rallies around $120k.

Macro uncertainty persists after hotter-than-expected US PPI, clouding the Fed’s near-term path ahead of September. Implied vol is subdued, pointing to range-bound trade until policy clarity improves. The setup underscores how quickly conditions can shift, even near highs.

Volatility Snapshot: BTC Heavy, ETH Resilient

Realized vol steady: BTC ~30, ETH ~65. Front-end BTC vol remains heavy; ETH front-end continues to firm. Carry slightly positive in BTC; negative in ETH. BTC’s OHLC has breached lower several times post-top; ETH is holding its implied range given higher vols. Short gamma at these inflection levels carries elevated risk.

Skew Shifts Toward Puts as Traders De-Risk

BTC and ETH skews are pulling toward put premium as markets correct. ETH skew flips back to calls from the October expiry; BTC doesn’t show call premium again until Mar ’26. The move lower triggered buying of August/September puts around the 110k strike. Calls and call spreads are being sold as longs de-risk into Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

ETH/BTC Stalls at Resistance; Vol Structures Adjust

ETH/BTC stalled at long-term downtrend resistance near 0.039 and has retraced ~7%. Front-end vol spread steady around 35; other tenors are being pulled higher as ETH’s swings persist. Front-end skew spread is moving toward flat as ETH corrects after a parabolic run. Long-dated skew still leans to ETH upside, peaking near +3.5 vols in December.

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