Upon waking up, BTC reached a new high again. Last night when it reached 111.4k, some said it was just a upward retest of the high point from May 22nd, but this morning it directly broke through. Test, test, test too much and it breaks. With one stroke, the green candle pulled up, and in the afternoon it touched 118.4k, almost reaching the midline of the power law at 120k.
Yes, you didn't see it wrong. Now it's just a regression to the midvalue of the original power law model.
The chain seems to have said earlier that BTC in this round is like crawling along the midline. Now it's in this posture. The midline is like a wall. Hanging on the wall once in early 2024. Hanging on the wall once (or twice) at the end of 2024 and early 2025. Now it seems about to hang on the wall again. Like an ivy vine～
Looking up, between 120k and 400k is a deep and boundless starry sea. Looking down, from 120k to 40k is a cliff with a gentle breeze brushing the mountain ridge.
Hanging on the midline in July 2017. Rushing towards the starry sea in the second half of the year. Tenfold joy.
Breaking through the midline in July 2019. Encountered a "312" fatal strike ten months later. The pain of being halved.
For the spectators watching the excitement from the sidelines, the most exciting time in the market was in March 2024 when it first broke through the previous high of 69k in 2021 and hung on the midline at 74k. It was truly a bustling scene, with firecrackers and crowds, new money and new people rushing in, squeezing to get on board, afraid of missing out.
But those who squeezed in with all their might were stunned. Just after getting on board, they were hit head-on - Mt.Gox combined with German government selling, a long, dreary rainy year.
Those who couldn't hold on cut their losses. Those who persevered made it to the end of 2024 when Trump took office, reaching a new high of 100k. And if you were paying attention to both BTC and US stocks, congratulations, you would see crypto KOLs saying they cleared out at 100k, and the stock market also spread "ironclad evidence" that BTC had peaked.
This so-called "ironclad evidence" was the BTC exit chart that circulated in the stock market half a year ago. The chain even made the indicator themselves. Looking at it, sure enough, as expected - the indicator failed.
Obviously, this indicator has been failing since April this year. (Details about this indicator are not elaborated here, interested parties can review the chain's article on 2025.4.22 《Apple and BTC》)
Now we know a fact: the market has added many people who once got on board, tasted success, but hastily got off at the second new high and are now standing outside, waiting for BTC to reverse and pick them up.
BTC will always reverse, but not necessarily to pick people up. It might just be repeatedly crushing the corpses of positions.
The market will definitely rise. The market will definitely fall. But the market will never rise or fall according to your expectations.
Before reversing to pick people up, it's best to first call back those who got off initially. Get back on and lose once. Reverse and lose again. Losing twice is the punishment for getting off.
Bulls are also blooming with just a bit of sunshine. With this comprehensive rise, ETH bulls have straightened their chests, and KOLs have started promoting the altcoin season again.
Third new high, Lian Po is old, can he still eat? Can he first take down the midline at 120k? The bulls who are strong once, weak twice, and exhausted thrice - can they still shout the earth-shattering slogan - "I don't want casualty numbers, I only want the midline!"
