Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.68 trillion, with BTC accounting for 63.9% at $2.35 trillion. Stablecoin market cap is $257 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.83%, of which USDT accounts for 62.25%. Circle (USDC) has applied for a US National Trust Bank license to enhance compliance.
The Trump family's USD1 trading volume reached a new high, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.25 billion, second only to USDT and USDC.
This week, BTC price showed a volatile upward trend, currently at $118,003; ETH also showed a volatile upward trend, currently at $3,011.
BTC Key Price Milestones (July 7-11) | ||
---|---|---|
Date | Price | Key Driving Factors |
July 7 | 107,945 | Trump tariff policy triggered market volatility |
July 10 | 112,000 | Brazilian funds seeking safe haven |
July 11 | 118,000 (New High) | ETF fund inflows + short covering |
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are up with a few down, including: BONK up 37.59% in 7 days, SPX up 32.7% in 7 days, PENGU up 32% in 7 days, MGO up 56% in 7 days, 1INCH up 42% in 7 days.
This week, US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows: $2.714 billion; US Ethereum spot ETF net inflows: $907.8 million.
Market Predictions:
This week saw continued stablecoin issuance, with significant net inflows into US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. BTC and ETH both showed a volatile upward trend. The RSI index is 62.87, indicating strength. The Fear and Greed Index is 72 (higher than last week), stable for two consecutive days, reflecting market optimism but not extreme.
This week, the US introduced Tariffs 2.0, imposing 20-50% tariffs on multiple countries, but with minimal impact on the crypto market. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 72.3%, but July remains unchanged.
Attention should be focused on the US "Crypto Week" from July 14-18, which will review three major bills including 'GENIUS' and 'CLARITY'. If passed, BTC may challenge $120,000. If regulatory uncertainty increases, it may retrace to the support level of $108,000-$110,000.
Current Insights
Week in Review
1. Bitcoin reached a historic high of $118,000, with short sellers covering $318 million;
2. Trump announced 50% tariffs on Brazil (effective August 1), triggering BTC safe-haven inflows;
3. US "Crypto Week" set for July 14-18, will review bills like 'GENIUS' and 'CLARITY';
4. BTC spot ETF single-day net inflow of $203 million, BlackRock's holdings exceed $78 billion;
5. ETH ETF fund inflows hit quarterly high, Fundstrat raises $250 million to increase ETH holdings;
6. GMX hacked, losing $42 million, team offers 10% bounty to recover funds;
7. XBIT decentralized exchange trading volume surges 300%, becoming a new safe-haven option during tariff crisis;
8. Fed June meeting minutes reveal internal disagreements, cooling rate cut expectations;
9. 85 core stock data on-chain in Hong Kong, Pyth Network promotes RWA development;
10. Trump family crypto project profits exceed $600 million, sparking policy and business interest controversy.
Macroeconomic Outlook
United States
1. Fiscal Policy: "Big Beautiful Bill" (tax cuts + infrastructure) passed House, may increase long-term inflation;
2. Monetary Policy: Fed rate cut probability in September is 72.3%, but July remains unchanged.
Europe and Asia
Region | Policy Trends | Market Impact |
Eurozone | ECB maintains rates, hints at delayed rate cut | Euro under pressure |
Japan | Maintains ultra-loose policy | Yen depreciation accelerates |
China | May cut reserve ratio by 0.5% in second half | Liquidity expectations improve |
ETF
According to statistics, from July 7 to July 11, US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows were $2.714 billion; as of July 11, GBTC (Grayscale) has outflowed $23.338 billion, currently holding $21.724 billion, IBIT (BlackRock) currently holding $83.085 billion. The total market cap of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $150.643 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETF net inflows: $907.8 million.
Future Outlook
Event Announcements
1. Polkadot will host Web3 Summit 2025 from July 16-18 in Berlin;
2. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held from August 28-29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre;
3. WebX Asia 2025 will be held from August 25-26, 2025 in Tokyo, Japan;
4. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will be held from October 1-2, 2025 in Singapore.
Project Developments
1. Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm's trial will be on July 14, with prosecutors dropping some charges but proceeding with money laundering, unauthorized fund transfers, and violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act;
2. US Congress will begin voting on three important crypto-related legislative bills on July 14, including the 'Genius Act', 'Clarity Act', and 'Anti-CBDC Monitoring State Act';
3. Wormhole staking plan's first reward period must be claimed by July 15, after which unclaimed rewards will be returned to the SRP pool for future reward cycles;
4. Sonic Labs will randomly open the first phase of S token airdrop claiming from July 15-22;
5. Tuttle submits an amendment to change the effective date of a batch of 2x leveraged crypto ETFs to July 16. This doesn't guarantee their launch, but typically the effective date is the ETF launch date, and given SSK's successful listing, others are likely to follow.
Important Events
1. July 15, 20:30, US releases June unadjusted CPI year-on-year, affecting Fed policy expectations;
2. July 17, 2:00, Fed releases economic conditions Beige Book.
Token Unlocks
1. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on July 15, worth about $18.54 million, 3.53% of circulating supply;
2. Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on July 15, worth about $17.87 million, 1% of circulating supply;
3. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on July 16, worth about $38.51 million, 1.87% of circulating supply;
4. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 173 million tokens on July 17, worth about $10.12 million, 2.42% of circulating supply;
5. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.58 million tokens on July 17, worth about $10.46 million, 1.95% of circulating supply;
6. Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 20 million tokens on July 18, worth about $89 million, 4.64% of circulating supply;
7. OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) will unlock 906 million tokens on July 18, worth about $913 million, 9% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, is dedicated to providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have built a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", offering precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors at different levels through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessment of potential projects, and round-the-clock market fluctuation monitoring. Combining the bi-weekly "Hotcoin Strict Selection" strategy live broadcast and daily "Blockchain Today's Headlines" news briefing, we rely on cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks to continuously empower new investors to establish cognitive frameworks and help professional institutions capture alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure capital safety.
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