Written by: Jeffrey Ding, Chief Analyst at HashKey Group
On July 14, Bitcoin (BTC) price strongly broke through the $120,000 integer mark, creating a new historical high. In this round of rise, active funds within the market and incremental funds from outside formed a double resonance, breaking through the "Trump bottom" interval, and market bullish sentiment significantly warmed up.
Bitcoin breaks through key interval, funds and policies jointly drive continuous upward trend
This week, Bitcoin cumulatively rose 9.08%, not only creating a historical high and breaking through the $120,000 mark, but also breaking through the "Trump bottom" oscillation consolidation interval from 90,000 to 110,000 dollars since last November. On-chain data shows that over 30% of Bitcoin in this interval have been transferred, long been viewed as an institutional position building dense area and a pricing anchor for policy expectations.
This breakthrough is not only technically significant, but also establishes a market consensus at the macro level that Bitcoin is gradually becoming a strategic asset in the United States. Especially against the background of former President Trump's multiple public statements supporting Bitcoin and advocating for establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, this price interval has evolved into a symbol of policy signals. Once this area is effectively penetrated, it means the market structure enters a new upward stage.
Institutional allocation continues to strengthen, ETF and mainstream assets co-evolve
The core driving force of this market trend comes from deep changes in fund structure. Internally, large transactions at top exchanges have significantly increased in frequency, HODLer proportion continues to rise, chip locking effect strengthens, and market selling pressure significantly reduces. Meanwhile, ETF funds continue to have net inflows, providing stable external support for the market trend. According to public data, as of now, Bitcoin-related ETFs have accumulated net inflows of $1.44 billion this month, with overall management scale breaking through $51 billion, becoming an important driving force for price stabilization and uplift.
The maturity of the ETF channel has also driven the gradual entry of traditional institutional funds. Including retirement funds, mutual funds, and other long-term funds are configuring Bitcoin through compliant channels, further enhancing the market's structural stability, reducing volatility, and broadening asset mainstream acceptance.
Technical structure is robust, trend continuity is strong, short-term volatility is controllable
Since breaking through the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin's overall trend remains strong. After the $110,000 mark was broken with volume, the $120,000 mark was also conquered due to continuously expanding trading volume, showing the continuity of the bullish dominant pattern. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a relatively high position but shows no obvious overbought signal, and the moving average system is clearly arranged, with the overall technical structure still supporting the upward trend.
In the short term, the market may still experience pullbacks, especially needing to pay attention to some funds taking profits, as well as uncertainties brought by geopolitical conflicts, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and the US election. In this context, investors are advised to maintain flexible positions, reasonably control risks, while continuously focusing on medium-term trends and continuation or adjustment rhythm.
Future Outlook: Regulatory Promotion Accelerates, Market Continuation Foundation Becomes More Solid
Looking ahead to the market, as the policy promotion pace accelerates, the foundation for continued market strength becomes increasingly solid. The ongoing "US Cryptocurrency Week" becomes an important window for policy implementation. Including stablecoin regulation, regulatory function division, restrictions on Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and other three key bills have entered the House of Representatives review stage and are expected to complete voting this week. Previously, the "GENIUS Act" was passed with high votes in the Senate, clearly defining stablecoin 1:1 reserve and federal audit requirements, providing important support for institutional fund inflow and payment scenario expansion.
Substantial progress in policy promotion provides clear institutional support for Bitcoin breaking through $120,000, and further boosts market confidence in the path of compliance and mainstreaming. The current market trend is not only a technical breakthrough but also a concentrated manifestation of global capital's re-pricing of crypto assets' long-term value.
Short-term attention should be paid to policy implementation rhythm and market adjustment fluctuations, but in the medium and long term, crypto asset mainstreaming has moved from trend judgment to realization stage,
