Article source: Talk Li Talk Outside
In recent days, the market seems to have less emotional heat, with Bitcoin continuing to oscillate in the high-level range. The overall trend looks relatively stable, and most people (funds) may still be observing or waiting for some important news. The daily discussions in the group are mainly focused on some hot news topics:
(1) A 14-year dormant BTC ancient whale awakens
I briefly looked, and this message should have originally come from a Lookonchain tweet, roughly meaning a Bitcoin holder with at least 80,000 BTC has awakened after being dormant for 14 years and has been gradually transferring his held Bitcoin. As shown in the image below.
Subsequently, this message began to spread rapidly across major crypto media and self-media platforms, followed by various speculations, such as: some say this ancient whale is an independent miner from 2011, some say it's a Chinese person who has been released from prison, and others say this is a super main force testing market reactions...
As for whose 80,000 bitcoins these are, and what exactly is the intention behind suddenly choosing to awaken now - whether it's potential massive selling pressure on the market or just a test by a super main force - we cannot know at this moment. However, from Bitcoin's price trend in the past two days, funds do not seem to have shown any signs of panic selling due to this event.
I'm quite calm about such news. If everyone is interested, you can use on-chain data tools like Arkham to monitor the transfer movements of those Bitcoin addresses in real-time.
Since we're talking about whales, let's also take a look at the overall dynamics of different levels of Bitcoin whales:
By observing on-chain data, Shark wallets (wallets holding 100-1K BTC) are still actively accumulating, while Whale wallets (holding 1K-10K BTC) and Humpback wallets (holding >10K BTC) have been in a selling trend over the past year. As shown in the image below.
From this data, we can further speculate that in the past year, Bitcoin seems to be entering a structural fund redistribution process, with early whales starting to exit and some medium-sized players like institutions/funds beginning to take over and gradually build positions. I believe that from a medium to long-term perspective, whale selling is not necessarily a bad thing. Bitcoin becoming more distributed can reduce the risk of price manipulation by whales to some extent. In other words, in the short term, whale selling might suppress stage-specific market prices, but as long as medium-sized players can continuously complete absorption, the market is still worth looking forward to in the medium to long term. However, in this human wealth migration game, Crab wallets (holding 1-10 BTC) or Shrimp wallets (holding <1 BTC) might ultimately be more hurt.
[The translation continues in the same manner for the rest of the text, maintaining the specified translations for specific terms.]However, here we need to additionally remind you to pay attention to the time cycle you are using (hourly, daily, weekly lines), and also to identify the trading volume/trading depth of the tokens, especially for small coins or on-chain meme coins where the K-lines actually have limited reference value (the whale can draw it however they want, without any bottom line).
(2) Based on data level
From the beginning of this cycle, it has become relatively difficult to earn significant profits directly through Altcoins, because thousands of new coins are launched every day in this field, with liquidity more dispersed than ever before. Additionally, with the recent popularity of stock tokenization, although on-chain stocks can currently bring some new liquidity and attention, they will also further dilute existing liquidity.
However, as long as the market's volatility attributes remain and narrative speculation can continue, using some corresponding tools to research and track data, and thereby discover potential opportunities, remains an effective approach or method.
Regarding data tools, we have already included many in the "Talk Lee Talk Outside Toolbox", and we have also shared some in last year's (2024) e-book "Blockchain Methodology". Here we will simply recall a few:
For example, Dexu, a data platform based on on-chain and social analysis, provides a series of data such as popular narrative rankings, narrative price performance, industry analysis, project analysis, market signals, etc. As shown in the figure below.
From the figure above, we can discover that the top 3 fastest-growing narratives in the past 7 days are L1, Crypto Stocks, and Sweet-spot. Among them, the top 3 price-performing L1 projects are PLUME, CELO, and ETH, while the top 3 price-performing Sweet-spot projects are PENGU, AAVE, and HYPE. This also seems to align with recent market performance, as the Crypto Stocks concept has been quite hot recently, and L1 carries technological integration, while Sweet-spot carries ecosystem implementation, which are some of the supporting and speculative reasons for the good price performance of such projects.
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